DTN Midday Livestock Comments 12/11 11:54
Livestock Futures Show Wide Price Shifts
Active price movement has quickly developed through the entire complex
Tuesday. Sharp triple-digit gains flooded into feeder cattle markets, helping
to support the entire cattle complex. Weakness has developed across lean hog
trade and fundamental concerns.
By Rick Kment
Livestock futures have held mixed market shifts seen early in the day with
moderate to strong losses in hog trade focusing on renewed pressure in cash
values and concern that follow-through fundamental pressure may continue.
Feeder cattle futures have held sharp gains with January futures $2.40 per cwt
higher in active buyer interest. Live cattle markets are supported, although
traders remain cautious about follow-through support developing at this point.
Corn markets are higher in light trade. March corn futures are 1/4 cent higher.
Stock markets are lower in active trade. Dow Jones is 97 points lower with
Nasdaq up 26 points.
The strong underlying support in feeder cattle trade Tuesday morning has
steadily brought some additional support back into the live cattle complex.
This has moved prices from narrow single-digit price shifts seen early in the
session to uniform support of 50 to 65 cent gains as traders are slowly moving
back into the complex. The potential for firm beef demand through the end of
the year and over the next couple of weeks is helping to focus trader's
interest on fundamental moves. The sideways back and forth chart moves within
the wide trading range seen through the last few months is limiting any sense
of technical direction. Cash cattle interest remains undeveloped with prices
showing little to no direction this early in the week. Active bids are expected
to be pushed off until midweek or later, although there are starting to be a
few live asking prices seen around $122 per cwt. This is well above where
initial bids will likely develop, but could help to set the tone for market
activity toward the end of the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed,
$0.94 higher (select) and down $0.92 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 64
total loads reported (49 loads of choice cuts, 10 loads of select cuts, no
loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef).
Buyers flooded into feeder cattle futures through the morning with active
support seen in all markets. This has pushed triple-digit buyer support into
all nearby contracts with front-month January futures securely holding a $2.25
per cwt rally. The lack of support in the grain market during the morning and
limited movement after the USDA supply and demand report has allowed for the
aggressive buyer support to continue to develop through the complex. With only
moderate gains seen in live cattle trade, there is expected to be some
additional underlying support in all cattle trade through the rest of the day.
Firm losses have continued to hold in lean hog trade as traders continue to
remain concerned about overall demand for pork. Current production levels
through early 2019 continue to put even more pressure on nearby trade. February
futures are leading the complex lower with a $1.62 per cwt loss. This latest
round of market pressure has been focusing on February and April contracts as
the expectation that any global trade changes will have a stronger impact on
summer and fall contracts later in the year. Cash prices are lower on the
National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is $0.50
lower at $46.66 per cwt with the range from $42.00 to $47.89 on 6,348 head
reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash
hog report. The weighted average price is $0.31 lower at $45.93 per cwt with
the range from $44.00 to $46.50 on 2,781 head reported sold. Pork carcass
values added $1.17 per cwt at $73.82 per cwt on 277 loads. Lean hog index for
12/07 is $56.12, up 0.16, with a projected two-day index is $55.98, down 0.14.
Rick Kment can be reached at email@example.com
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
DTN offers additional daily information available free through DTN Snapshot – sign up